Rule Of Thumb 20.01

Saya sering mendengar istilah ini baik dalam buku, film, meeting....bahkan dalam kontrak.
Selama ini interpretasi saya terhadap istilah "rule of thumb" ini adalah, "aturan main yang paling basic", atau "aturan yang paling sederhana", saya sendiri beberapa kali menggunakan istilah ini tanpa bertanya apa arti dan maksud sebenarnya dari "rule-of-thumb" ini.

Ternyata saya tidak terlalu jauh meleset...kecuali untuk satu fakta sejarah yang agak kelam tentang istilah ini, dan mulai hari ini membuat saya memutuskan untuk tidak menggunakan intilah tersebut lagi.

Jadi apa sebenarnya arti "The Rule of Thumb (ROT)" ini?

Di wikipedia ditulis:

"A rule of thumb is a principle with broad application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for approximately calculating or recalling some value, or for making some determination."

Intinya menjelaskan bahwa ROT itu adalah prinsip basic yang sederhana dan belum tentu akurat dan reliable.

Well...that didn't explain much.

Jadi apa hubungannya antara "aturan main/prinsip" dengan "thumb" atau "ibu jari/jempol" dalam bahasa Indonesia?

Setelah secara tidak sengaja mendengar istilah ROT ini dalam film The Boondock Saint (1999) akhirnya saya tahu kenapa.

Rupanya istilah ini sejarahnya cukup panjang sampai ke abad17 - 19 di Inggris.
Dalam masa tersebut suami atau lelaki masih diperbolehkan untuk memukul istri atau pasangannya yang menentang mereka dengan tongkat...selama tongkat tersebut tidak lebih lebar dari ibu jari mereka, sebagai salah satu "pengecualian" dalam hukum kekerasan rumah tangga (KDRT), yang saat itupun masih berdasarkan kebiasaan adat disana.

Hmmm...that's just wrong, for any reason we (as a man) shouldn't hit a woman....period!

Jadi karena fakta sejarah tersebut...istilah ini saya hapus dalam kamus saya.

Just 09.18

I'm tired of talking and bickering to these corrupt people, tired of hearing legal arguments where both sides claim that they are smarter or righteous than the other. Tired of reading, watching, and hearing news from dishonest media.

Our nation is at peril, not from volcanoes or earthquakes...but from moral deprivation, where ravenous businessmen and corrupt government shakes their hands, pretending that they didn't hear that the people are crying.

So I'm gonna wait...I'm gonna wait until the talking stop...because then it will be our turn to make the rules.

How The “Catfish” had Played Us All? 20.53

By Andika Gunadarma

Like in a game of chess, you always sacrifice your pawns to save your king or to distract your opponent attention while you plan your next move. There is no mystery in it.

In this case Gayus “the catfish” (I called him that because he looks like one big fat catfish) is just one of the (many) pawns, and possibly also many kings. I counted at least 4 kings, one in the tax office, one in the police, attorney general (AGO) and one in the tax court. These people are the mastermind behind this scandal. But unfortunately people attention already focuses on him and him alone right now even his self-righteous lawyer.

So their plan of diversion is working.

Ever since this case was brought up by Susno (also one of the expendable pawns) last year, most of us wonder, “how in earth that a low-ranking tax officer can get ten million US dollar in less than 5 year of work?” Some of us also wonders, “Who gave him those of money?”

But none of us ever question, “Is that really his money?” or he’s only holding it for someone else?

The most important and terrifying fact that I found during my investigation is that although Gayus might seems like a fat retarded guy, with crazy eyes, and bad teeth he is NOT stupid. This was also underestimate by those 4 kings.

Knowing this piece of evidence alone has been given me nightmares.

The fact that he is still alive right now to me is not because he has some critical information about the whole shenanigans but simply because he is the only one who has access to the money. The 4 kings have to guarantee his safety if they don’t want to loose their shares of the entire pillage.

Come on, bare with me here.

Let’s assume you own several big-huge-billions-dollar mining companies but don’t want to pay taxes. Well who doesn’t?
You need someone within the tax office that you can trust to create a shady deal.
As a public figure and with your credibility at stakes you wouldn’t want a bottom feeder like Gayus to handle the “deal”, you would need a high-ranking officer there, and it would be best if you could shake hands with the one on top of the “food chain”. The first king, tax king.

Now the tax king is not stupid either, he has to make sure that he has an exit plan, to ensure his safety, and reputation if anything should ever go wrong he has to be sure that all the evidence will point to the other direction (or other guy). In this Internet and social-networking age, one thing these people fear the most is the media attention, because it will blow the shit right into the fan with light speed and it will be too late and too expensive to fix.
So all he has to do is to find some low-ranking officers in his office that is stupid and greedy enough to be his pawns. The king gave them promise of wealth, career and security for their family. Which is irrelevant, because these low-ranking officers wouldn’t dare to refuse any order from their king anyway.

But they did it anyway just to unsure loyalty.

This method was also conducted in similar fashion by the other kings. They appointed their pawns, to do their dirty work.

It is very clever, because if anything should happen even in the worst-case scenario, like in case one of the king get caught by the KPK, and decided to turn state evidence, it will not reach as far as the other kings. The evidence will stop and pointed to these pawns. In this situation, media attention will be focused on these pawns as well, and create even wider gap between them (kings) and their money.

And I can bet you that this method also played in many other government institutions. It will not stop KPK from arresting those kings but it will make it harder, much harder.

You would have guessed that Antasari case was all about murder, wouldn’t you?
It is not. It’s about a deal between kings that went sour, its about one girl that until today we never heard from her again, its about an escrow account…Yes it’s all about the money.

These pawns are working as a team they have person to deal with the police pawns; other with the AGO, the tax court and one of them should be in charged as the “treasury” or “the book keeper”. Since all the payment has to go through the tax office, this “book keeper” role should be played by one of the pawns from the tax office.

That is where Gayus was called in and accept that role, and you probably have also heard some other name such as Radja Erisman, Edmon Eliyas and Cirus Sinaga. Those three are the pawns for the police king and the AGO king.

Every time those kings need money they call him, they need a new house or car or put their children to school aboard they call him, and he will gave them the money. If it’s a car they wanted it should be bought under his name, if it’s money they want he will bring hard cash. They are not stupid enough to do these transaction using wire transfer, because the internal-audit alarm will sound for any transaction above Rp.200 million, especially those that was made by government officer.

These kings always managed kept their hands clean.

But learning from history where they (corrupt) predecessors had been arrested by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), thrown into prison, some of them got heart attack, even died in prison.
Those facts had made them evolved into more sophisticated, meticulous, and paranoid criminal.

Since Gayus is the only one who has access to the money always have the upper hands. He will not share the same fate like the rest of those bottom feeders.

This is how I figure it out.

Fact number one:
For a guy (Indonesian guy) who has more than $10 million he is way too humble. It’s true that he lives in a big house and drives a nice car. Maybe he has more houses and more cars, well he doesn’t. We all saw his father house and his old house. If he have all that money to himself it would’ve been hard to keep it in a safe since you can’t put them in your bank account, most corruptor kept their stash by buying properties, or gold. So what stopping him to do the same?
The answer to that is because those are NOT HIS MONEY.

Fact number two:
This is logic, “You can’t make or steal $10 million and hide it by your selves”, not in this country, not for a guy like him; he can’t even make $5000 alone. He must have someone helping him, an accomplice. This person could be his wife, his relatives, his co-worker, basically someone he can trust. Gayus can’t make any deal or forfeit a tax report without his senior/supervisor (his boss) signature. He can’t manipulate police report or tax court preceding without help from those other pawns. He can’t create an offshore escrow account(s) without a tip and connection from those business people who pays the bribe money.
He’s not stupid, but he is not that bright either.

Fact number three
Getting caught on camera watching a tennis match in Bali despite any speculation why he was stupid enough to be there in the first place, was not how he wore that ridiculous wig, or how the photographer managed to recognize him but for a felon who “escaped” incarceration he was disturbingly calmed, as if no harm will able to touch him. He was so relaxed, there could only two possibility for a person in his situation could pull a stunt like that was either he is conically retarded (with a death wish) or he has someone protecting him. Either way the plan for those kings to put the heat on him instead of them is working beautifully. We could see on most headlines on this was all about “how powerful Gayus was” (even the economist wrote that way).

Some people are trying (hard) to draw a connection between his Bali trips to one of the wealthiest man in this country that happened to be there at the same time. Coincidence? I don’t think so. The question that we should ask here is, why a man with that status would risk his reputation so recklessly? The answer to that is because he didn’t know that Gayus would be there. Again, the only possible reason why Gayus was there was not to incriminate him, but to drawn public attention on him…him alone.

Why?

Yes, now we’re asking the right question. Why should they treat him differently? He’s only a low-ranking officer. Well, it is for all the right reason, because he’s still has their money as leverage.

Gayus has bargaining power, one power that he probably just realized he has when he was arrested in Singapore. Yes, I saw the clip where two of our so-cal-anti-mafia team was “accidently” bump into him in an Indonesian diner there. I could see that the two well-known public figures were talking to him (almost looked like they were begging) for him to go with them back to our country.

You see, this is very, very rare because we don’t usually treat criminal like that, our law enforcement were not suppose to negotiate. I saw criminal being dragged, choked, poked, shoved, and yelled. Our police often put a bullet into a criminal leg, and/or beat he light out of them. Then come another clip (supposedly taken by a hidden camera) where they negotiate some more in his hotel room, but I knew that it was staged. I saw how they carried out their conversation, it's very relaxed, you can even hear some tiny laugh was broken there.

Come on, you all saw what happened with Bibit and Chandra, how they treated them, or how they treated Antasari, and those people from DPR and former high-ranking officers.

Now compare those with how they treated Gayus, Artalyta and Rani Juliani.

If it weren’t because of media coverage, Artalita would’ve sipping Singapore Sling in Singapore right now while having her nails done where she was suppose to be in prison.

For a country that doesn’t have a witness protection program, we sure are spoiling them, “protecting” them not from those who want to silence them, but from us, so we can all stay ignorance and those kings can negotiate their share.

Right now, the public attention, anguish and hatred already on Gayus. For him it doesn’t matter anymore, he got nothing to loose. Even if his share only 10% out of those $10 million it is still millions times more that he can make if he was clean. And looking back to our history of corruption verdicts, he will probably go to prison for less than 7 year. The question is, are you willing to trade your 7 years of freedom for $1million? Knowing that you will not be able to make that much money even if you are working for 50 years without eating.

It is a deafening reality of our beloved country.

These kings have played us like a dog, barking at the wrong tree.
The phrase “Conspiracy to commit crime” is merely just another distant echoes that nobody would even care.

Hopefully we still have the last laugh…because these kings are laughing at us right now.

Monsters - September 2010 21.15

High on Expectation, Low on Efforts 13.40

Back in the 80s and early 90s Indonesia used to have a properly run airplane factory that produced an actual airplanes of the CN 235 model, a mid-sized airplane that can carry 30 passengers along with their relatively small luggage and has a flying range to a “acceptable” distances.

At the time, this particular airplane was the “lighthouse”, the “show-and-tell”, the “crown and jewel” product of our nation.

Well, back then there were not many countries in the world that could produce the plane.

We were able to… sort of.

The industry was supposedly designed to be an arrowhead, and attraction for foreign investors, and a showpiece for the rest of the world that “Indonesia, as a developing country, is actually making developments”. This even though the only part of the airplane that was actually (100%) made in Indonesia were the doors. The rest of the parts were made in China, Germany, Japan and India.

The industry attracted the supposedly “crème-de-la- crème” Indonesians of the day. They were proud people. I remember seeing their brand new shiny cars in their big parking lot, which was close to my high school in Bandung. They were provided for employees by the company (The IPTN, short for Industri Pesawat Terbang Nusantara).

The higher-paid employees bought their own cars, usually of a type similar to the company car. It was hard for me not to fall under the impression that they were making a gesture to show outsiders that they were superior. Back then, we were only too happy to confirm their false pride.

In those days, I myself fell victim to that belief. I even put a sincere effort to convince myself that IPTN was “the place” for a career after I graduated from college.

I was wrong… an honest mistake.

Their so-called achievements are mere history now.

Only a a dozen of airplanes was sold from 1996 until today. In 1998, the government practically begged Thailand and Vietnam to trade planes with rice, massive quantities of it. That policy literally destroyed the local rice farming industry, and created a whole new level of corruption in our logistic department (BULOG).

More than 10,000 workers in the nation were laid off without any security during the period from 1997 to 2000, which created a national workers’ protest, thus forcing the government to renew their labor law in 2003. Unfortunately this protest is unsettled until this day and neither the government nor the workers have gained from their unproductive discourse.

The global crisis really hit Indonesia hard, like a bullet to the head, but it was always bound to happen when our debt in US dollars outweighed our revenues.

In the last decade, Indonesia saw through the governance styles of four different presidents. Along the way, we have found ourselves in the internet era of interactive and real-time Information Technology assisted economy.

In 2006, the government decided that they were going to “seriously focus” on a national car. This vehicle would be a 100% made in Indonesia by Indonesians and for Indonesians. This venture was to be a new beginning for our national technology developments. I was excited.

Unfortunately, they have come out with a car that they are so proud to call the “Tawon” (Wasp). I was less than impressed: a child’s soap-box stroller would be offended by the name. By its visual design, even wasps as a species might get offended.

It is only fair for me now to disclose that I am first and foremost and automobile enthusiast. I live and breathe car design and performance. There are several characteristics of the car that I feel I need to analyze on a deeper level, being: concept, safety, fuel efficiency, affordability, performance, comfort, and aesthetics. With all due respect, my constructive criticism of the Tawon is as follows:

Concept

The car is build with a “city car” concept, so it is supposed to be small in size. In this part the designer is perhaps takes the idea a bit too far. The car is very small. It is so small that you have to throw everything out (including your dignity) just to get in the passenger seat. So if you are a family of 5 (the average size for an Indonesian family), you need to leave one of your family members at home. My recommendation is that you should leave your oldest son, just to save him from humiliation.

Safety

The Tawon’s chassis and body works does not inspire safety. The chassis and body works are constructed out of recycled metal that is actually composed of used soda cans, fridges, oven, electric poles, bikes, and other scraps. The plastic parts are likewise recycled from plastic junk.

One could argue that this is actually an achievement, because we are actually helping Mother Nature and possibly even doing something about global warming. In theory, the Tawon is an eco friendly car. However, this construction fails to consider one cardinal rule: the car should be safe and otherwise roadworthy. There is an international minimum standard for the construction of cars, and in the case of the Tawon, it is as safe as a coffin on wheels.

There is no measurement of “central of gravity”. No crumple zone, the rear bumper is the rear body. No side beam to protect passengers from side crash. No air bags. The measurement of the car body size compared with the wheels is reminiscent of a fridge with skateboard wheels. You might need to use your feet to hold the car from tumbling sideways during every tight turn.

There are standards of safety that any carmaker/builder must meet, according to a nationally enforced regulation. In Britain they have to pass the MOT, and in America the DMV, to make sure that their vehicles are road worthy. The sole principle for this standard is the obvious fact that just one car could greatly affect the safety of all other users on the road. That is why even very simple parts such as turn signals or brake lights are so integral to the totality of how traffic systems work.

Unfortunately, such standards for the construction of cars are not present in Indonesia. Here, you could fill your supercharged engine with rocket fuel if you want, without requiring any kind of license.

Fuel efficiency

Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Tawon is its fuel. In a time when human ingenuity has managed to use palm oil to fuel internal combustion engines, and in a country that produces more palm oil than any other in the world, the Tawon’s genius designers have somehow decided to design a car that runs on liquid natural gas (LNG). For this particular design choice they deserve a standing ovation.

I am comfortable with the concept of using gas as a fuel for a stove or an oven. The reason being is that a stove or an oven is required to produce flames. But obviously, open flames are not what you would like around your internal combustion engines.

You would only feel safe if you knew and felt sure that the LNG is stored in a very strong container. Strong containers are usually heavy, and made out of strong material. It can only be light if it made out of titanium. So it is unfortunate that the Tawon does not use titanium. Believe me, it is not a good idea to be sitting in an LNG powered car that is made out of recycled material, running at 50 mph in a crowded street. Not even Evil Knievel was so daring.

The only reason the government encourages these geniuses to use LNG in their design is because Indonesia has a lot of gas. We have enough gas to spend excessively that would not run out for 300 years. That’s 7 generations. Therefore using LNG is the much cheaper option.

They say that the car can run up to 15 miles on 1 kg of LNG. A regular household LNG container is usually filled with 15 kgs of LNG, so this car (if using the same amount) can run up to 225 miles (a petrol powered engine with the same capacity can run for 30 miles with 1 liter of fuel).

For a city the size of Jakarta, that amount of fuel would last at least for 3 days. There are only a handful of petrol stations in Jakarta that actually sells liquid gas, and they are located very remotely from each other.

So this car is literally is a city car, meaning that you could not drive the Tawon outside Jakarta because there wouldn’t be any petrol station that sells LNG outside of the city. So if I wanted to go to Bandung in the Tawon today, I could be there in 2015, because that is when the government will actually sells liquid gas in every petrol station (according to their LNG plan).

To fill a tank with LNG is actually an involved process that takes at least an hour or more. If you are a man that relies on time to make money, this car would drive you crazy, not to mention that it is more expensive to maintain a gas powered engine compared to the petrol engine. The odds are greatly stacked against any argument that the Tawon could be fuel efficient.

Affordability

The Company producing this car, PT Super Gasindo Indonesia Jaya (GIJ), claimed that they would release this car to the market with 48 million rupiah ($4500) price tag. They have stated that the model is targeted to replace the infamous Bajaj in Jakarta, and that is apparently the reason why the car is painted orange.

Incidentally, this is where I draw the line. There are two reasons why there are so many road accidents in Jakarta, the first is because of pot-holes, and the second is the Bajaj. Bajaj drivers don’t recognize any traffic regulations and signs. They do not respect other road users. They never know how to turn properly and you would be lucky if they signal.

Luckily the Bajaj has a very low horse power, thus preventing them from driving any faster than 40 mph. The combination of the Tawon with the Bajaj mentality, therefore, is like giving a child handgun. They will not have the ability to take care of the car properly to keep the road safe for other users.

Another look at this particular issue is after sales services. There are none.

There won’t be any 24/7 standby mechanics to assist you should your Tawon break down. There won’t be any Tawon dealerships or shops for owners to come and visit to check their car.

Now, for 48 million you could have a wide range of choices. Mostly used cars, such as Toyota and Suzuki with good condition. If you are going to use it commercially then you need a reliable and durable car. It would better if it came from known carmakers from familiar brands, like the aforementioned. With a comparable amount of money you could actually buy two used 90s minivan from Suzuki. You would have a fleet instead of a “bug”.

Performance & Comfort

The car has 650cc gas powered engine and weighs nearly a ton. So according to the power and weight ratio of this car it is obvious that you cannot expect to feel any “torque sensation”. It has 15 horsepower and claims to reach top speed of 60mph. It is a blast.

The reason why the petrol engine is still popular compared with any other type of engine, is because of that particular reason. The performance. If a 1500cc petrol engine can travel up to 15 miles in 1 liter of petrol, this means that they could run more than 30 miles with 750cc engine. It would be faster and more economical.

The interior of this car is pitiful. The dashboard is made out of used plastics. There is no power window, no power steering, and the suspension is made out of carved rocks. The people who have driven a Tawon have claimed that they lost weight due to the tremendous vibrations.

Aesthetics

The design sense of aesthetic of the Tawon is unfortunately a setback and insult to car designers everywhere. Admittedly, looking at this car makes you want to smile.

Overall, this car is a serious hazard to anyone who drives them and anyone around them. The government should consider changing their consumer protection law if they want to actually release this car in the market. The Tawon doesn’t even have a seat belt. Just for this reason it is potentially a magnet for negligence suits and ambulance-chasing lawyers.

As an Indonesian, I believe that we could build a much better car than this one if we just stop enmeshing our national development with our troubled politics.

We are once a country that built airplane. We can build a nice car.